A Critical Look at Prediction Markets for Affiliation and iGaming

A Critical Look at Prediction Markets

Prediction markets have garnered attention as potential profit hubs for affiliates and iGaming brands. Polymarket and Kalshi, initially hyped for their political forecasting, predominantly handle sports and cryptocurrency bets. Despite this, these platforms are more competitors to traditional bookmakers and trading platforms than partners for affiliates.

Competitive Landscape

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi dominate the scene, reducing room for numerous iGaming brands. Unlike iGaming where various brands compete with similar offerings, prediction markets demand high liquidity. This essential asset raises the entry barriers, limiting new competitors.

Affiliation Challenges

High lifetime value and brand loyalty on prediction platforms minimise the benefits for affiliates. They retain users long-term, akin to investor-broker relationships, reducing the need for referral incentives. This results in lower reliance on affiliates for user acquisition compared to standard iGaming models.

Financial Sustainability

The financial model of prediction markets, particularly Polymarket, suggests a struggle for profitability. For example, Polymarket started charging event fees only recently in 2026, pointing to low margins.

While these dynamics appear challenging for affiliates, there is potential for strategic utilisation in marketing. The integration of prediction markets echoes the adoption of crash games in certain contexts.

Source: reg2bet Telegram